(UPSC GS Paper III – Indian Economy: Growth, Budgeting, Manufacturing, Infrastructure, External Sector)
Context (Introduction)
Budget 2026 is framed amid heightened geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty, trade disruptions, tariff wars, and fragile global supply chains. Instead of headline reforms, it adopts a calibrated, multi-sector approach to sustain medium-term growth and economic resilience.
Current Economic Situation
- Growth with fragility: India remains among the fastest-growing major economies (6.5–7%), but manufacturing share in GDP and employment has stagnated, indicating premature deindustrialisation.
- External shocks: U.S. tariffs on labour-intensive exports (textiles, leather, seafood) and China’s export curbs on critical minerals have heightened vulnerability.
- Investment slowdown: Fixed capital formation remains modest; net FDI inflows have fallen close to zero as a share of GDP.
- Import dependence: Rising reliance on imported capital goods, electronics components, rare earths, and intermediates, especially from China.
- Fiscal backdrop: Post-COVID fiscal consolidation has progressed, but global uncertainty limits space for aggressive deficit reduction.
Key Budget 2026 Strategy and Rationale
- Shift from “Big Bang” to diffusion: Recognising uncertainty, the Budget avoids disruptive reforms and instead deploys multiple targeted interventions across sectors.
- Manufacturing-centric thrust: Seven strategic sectors identified — semiconductors, electronics, biopharma, chemicals, capital goods, textiles, rare earths — to address import dependence.
- Correcting inverted duty structures: Reduction in customs duties on capital and intermediate goods to improve domestic value addition and investment incentives.
- Labour-intensive focus: MSMEs, textiles, leather and seafood targeted to cushion export shocks and preserve employment.
- Public capex as anchor: With private investment hesitant, government-led infrastructure spending continues as the primary growth driver.
Major Budgetary Interventions
- Capex push: Capital expenditure raised to ₹12.2 lakh crore (4.4% of GDP), highest in over a decade; freight corridors, logistics, rail and waterways prioritised.
- Semiconductor & electronics: India Semiconductor Mission 2.0 and ₹40,000 crore Electronics Component Manufacturing Scheme to deepen domestic supply chains.
- Biopharma SHAKTI: ₹10,000 crore over five years to position India as a global biopharma manufacturing hub.
- Rare earth corridors: Dedicated corridors across Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu to counter China’s mineral choke points.
- MSME strengthening: ‘Champion MSMEs’, cluster modernisation, SME Growth Fund to address equity gaps; MSMEs account for ~49% of exports.
- Export facilitation: Indirect tax rationalisation for textiles, leather, marine exports; logistics support via coastal shipping and inland waterways.
- Fiscal discipline: Fiscal deficit targeted at 4.3% of GDP; debt-GDP consolidation path maintained despite calls for flexibility.
Gaps and Concerns
- Weak private investment response: Budget relies heavily on public capex; limited measures to revive high-tech FDI or proprietary technology inflows.
- Manufacturing policy fragmentation: Absence of a comprehensive industrial policy risks sectoral measures remaining disjointed.
- Employment challenge: Manufacturing employment share continues to decline; services growth shows low employment elasticity amid AI disruption.
- SEZ dilution: Allowing SEZ units to sell domestically may weaken export orientation instead of addressing structural bottlenecks.
- Centre–State silence: Fiscal federal issues and upcoming Finance Commission recommendations largely unaddressed.
- Execution risks: Past delays (e.g., Export Promotion Mission) highlight implementation as the key determinant of success.
Way Forward
- Integrated industrial policy: Align tariffs, PLI, MSME support, logistics, and skill development under a unified manufacturing strategy.
- Crowd-in private investment: De-risk FDI through policy stability, faster clearances, and technology partnerships in semiconductors, EVs, and green tech.
- Domestic demand revival: Link manufacturing push with employment-intensive growth, wage expansion and consumption support.
- Centre–State coordination: Use capex-linked incentives and GST reforms to ensure States complement central manufacturing and logistics goals.
- Export diversification: Reduce overdependence on U.S. markets by fast-tracking EU FTA and strengthening trade ties with Global South.
- Execution-first governance: Time-bound implementation, monitoring dashboards and accountability to convert allocations into outcomes.
Conclusion
Budget 2026 reflects strategic caution in uncertain times, prioritising resilience over spectacle. Its emphasis on public capex, manufacturing depth and supply-chain security is well-calibrated, but success hinges on execution, private investment revival and employment creation. If backed by coherent industrial policy and Centre–State alignment, the Budget can convert current headwinds into a platform for sustained, inclusive growth.
Mains Question
Q. “Budget 2026 is a blueprint for reviving manufacturing sector. Critically examine (250 words, 15 marks)
Source: The Hindu