(UPSC GS Paper II – International Relations: India’s Relations with Neighbours, Regional Groupings, Bilateral Cooperation, Trade & Development)
Context (Introduction)
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan signals renewed economic outreach and developmental ambition, projecting opportunities for India–China cooperation even amid strategic tensions. As both nations pursue modernisation, the article highlights complementarities but also necessitates a careful assessment of challenges and calibrated engagement.
Main Arguments
- Developmental Convergence: China’s high-quality growth agenda under its 15th Five-Year Plan aligns with India’s Viksit Bharat 2047 vision, creating shared incentives for cooperation in technology, industry, and global governance.
- Trade Interdependence: Bilateral trade touched $138.46 billion in 2024, with 11% growth in 2025, establishing China as one of India’s largest trading partners and creating platforms like the Canton Fair for export diversification.
- Industrial Complementarity: China’s strength in electronics, renewables and manufacturing complements India’s capabilities in IT, pharma and digital innovation, offering potential for supply-chain synergy during global technological transitions.
- People-to-People Revival: Resumption of Kailash–Mansarovar pilgrimages, restoration of tourist visas, and direct flights enhance cultural linkage, building societal goodwill crucial for long-term stability.
- Multilateral Cooperation Imperative: India and China, as major economies within BRICS, SCO, G20, hold shared stakes in climate action, South–South cooperation, and shaping a more equitable multipolar order.
Challenges / Constraints
- Border Tensions & Trust Deficit: The post-2020 Line of Actual Control (LAC) standoff has significantly eroded strategic trust, limiting the space for expansive cooperation despite economic complementarities.
- Ballooning Trade Imbalance: India’s exports remain narrow and China-centric supply chains deepen a trade deficit exceeding $85 billion, posing vulnerability risks to critical sectors.
- Technology & Security Concerns: Chinese investments in telecom, digital infrastructure and apps have triggered national security concerns leading to bans, restrictions, and scrutiny of FDI inflows.
- Geopolitical Rivalry in Indo-Pacific: China’s assertive posturing in the Indian Ocean, growing footprint in South Asia, and closer ties with Pakistan complicate India’s strategic calculus.
- Asymmetry in Power & Influence: China’s GDP (~$20 trillion) and manufacturing scale create structural asymmetries that limit India’s bargaining leverage unless balanced by partnerships elsewhere.
Way Forward
- Dual-Track Diplomacy: Adopt a “guardrails approach” similar to the U.S.–China model — manage security disputes while keeping economic and cultural channels open.
- Strategic Export Diversification: Replicate Vietnam’s targeted export strategies to expand India’s footprint in electronics, pharma, agro-products and services in Chinese markets.
- Resilient Supply Chains: Build “China-plus-one” frameworks with Japan, South Korea and ASEAN to reduce overdependence without disengaging economically from China.
- Revitalised Boundary Negotiations: Institutionalise more frequent WMCC and SR-level talks; emulate the India–Bangladesh model of incremental confidence-building to stabilise border dynamics.
- Sector-Specific Cooperation: Pursue cooperation only in low-risk domains—healthcare, climate adaptation, green technologies—while ring-fencing sensitive sectors like digital infrastructure and telecom.
- People-Centric Connectivity: Strengthen educational, tourism and cultural exchanges, learning from EU–China people-to-people dialogue formats that build societal resilience.
Conclusion
India–China ties require a mature blend of engagement and vigilance. While economic complementarities offer shared gains, unresolved strategic frictions demand calibrated, interest-driven cooperation. A stable “dragon–elephant tango” will depend on restoring trust while safeguarding national priorities.
Mains Question
- Critically examine the complementarities and challenges shaping bilateral engagement between India and China and discuss the way forward for a stable and balanced relationship. (250 words, 15 marks)
Source: The Hindu